The gap between the most positive and negative six-month revenue growth forecasts for Australian SMEs has stretched to an astonishing 48 percentage points, from +18% to -30%.

The divide – the largest in the 11-year history of ScotPac’s bi-annual SME Growth Index Report – exposes the sharp contrast in SME confidence across borders and business sectors.

Overall, 59% of SMEs expect to see half-year revenue growth, which is nearing the record high of 62.6% achieved in 2014. However, that was tempered by the one-third of businesses nationally expecting revenue to fall.

Other key findings from the latest edition of ScotPac’s SME Growth Index Report include:

  • The average projected revenue growth rate across all SMEs nationally was 1.4%, with the most positive business flagging 18% revenue growth and the most pessimistic predicting a 30% decline.
  • Queensland SMEs top the national confidence table with an average revenue growth forecast of 10%; Western Australian SMEs were the next most positive with an average growth forecast of 7%.
  • Victoria remains the only state with negative revenue expectations, with SMEs projecting an average 9% decline.
  • Mining-related SMEs are the nation’s most optimistic, predicting average revenue growth of 6.3%
  • Construction SMEs are the most pessimistic, anticipating revenue to fall by 8.3%.

ScotPac Group Executive – Client Acquisition, Craig Michie said despite the patchy national results, it was encouraging that most SMEs were projecting a bump in short-term revenue.

“Considering the cost challenges SMEs faced in 2024 it’s great news that average revenue forecasts remain in the black,” Mr Michie said.

“The surge in optimism from businesses in resource-rich States shows no signs of slowing, while SMEs with tight margins or high exposure to discretionary spending are understandably more cautious about the future.

“There are more challenges on the horizon for business owners with the super guarantee set to rise again in July and the ongoing uncertainty around tariff policies.

“However, with inflation and interest rates expected to ease in coming months, there are good prospects of SME confidence lifting across more States and sectors.”

Mr Michie said SME owners and operators at all stages of the growth cycle should regularly consult with their brokers and advisors on how to best optimise their cash flow.

“Whether it’s managing payroll, paying down debt, or gearing up for growth, a range of finance options are available to help SMEs in almost any situation,” Mr Michie said

“For over 35 years, ScotPac has worked with brokers to help thousands of SMEs manage their cash flow and access the funds they need.

“In a rapidly evolving market, our expert team of lenders look forward to providing more businesses with the right support.”

 

About the SME Growth Index

Commencing in March 2014, ScotPac’s twice-yearly SME Growth Index is Australia’s longest- running research report on SME sentiment towards revenue growth prospects.

The Round 22 research was conducted by East & Partners who interviewed 724 SME enterprises with annual revenues of A$1-20 million.

SMEs surveyed have operated continuously for an average of 15.6 years and manage, on average, 55 full-time employees.

Sectors represented in the survey included Property & Business Services (14%), Manufacturing (13%), Wholesale (12%), Retail (10%), Transport & Storage (10%), Personal & Other Services (10%), Construction (10%) and other industries including Mining & Resources, Agriculture, Media & Telco, Accommodation, Cafes & Restaurants, Finance & Insurance (non-bank) and Electricity, Gas & Water.

 

ScotPac is Australia and New Zealand’s largest non-bank SME business lender, providing funding to small, medium and large businesses from start-ups to enterprises exceeding $1 billion in revenues. For more than 35 years, ScotPac has helped thousands of business owners succeed, offering fast and flexible funding. From simple to complex, small to large, start-up, growth or turnaround – ScotPac can help with a range of funding including Invoice Finance, Trade Finance, Asset Finance and Business Loans.

 

For more information contact:

 

Todd Hayward Mob: 0412 205 151