Australian SMEs are more polarised than ever about their short-term outlook, with the gap between the most optimistic and pessimistic six-month revenue forecasts hitting an all-time high.

The September 2025 edition of ScotPac’s bi-annual SME Growth Index Report reveals that 59% of SMEs expect revenue to rise in the six months to March 2026, forecasting a record average increase of 10%.

In stark contrast, 35% anticipate revenue to fall by an average of -14% over the same period. The most bullish SMEs are projecting growth of +19%, while the most pessimistic are bracing for a 30% decline.

This 49-point spread between the top and bottom forecasts is the largest divide in the 11-year history of the SME Growth Index, highlighting the deep uncertainty that currently exists in Australia’s business landscape.

Other related findings from the 23rd consecutive SME Growth Index Report include: 

  • SMEs in mining are the nation’s most optimistic, predicting average revenue growth of 81%, followed by Business Services (73%), Transport (66%), Agriculture (61%) and Wholesale (59%).
  • Construction industry SMEs remain the most pessimistic with only 26% expecting growth.
  • Western Australia reclaimed its mantle as the most positive state, with 91% of SMEs expecting revenue growth, followed by QLD (84%) and NSW (61%).
  • Victorian SMEs are the most negative with 67% expecting six-month revenue decline.
  • A record 25% of SMEs are in outright contraction mode – 3 times higher than the first Growth Index Report in 2014

ScotPac CEO, Jon Sutton said the growth outlook for SMEs has never been more divided across borders and business sectors.   

“Once again SMEs are displaying their outright resilience with nearly 60% expecting growth despite rising cost challenges across our economy,” Mr Sutton said.

“However, the alarm bells at the other end of the spectrum are deafening with one in four SMEs now describing themselves as being in outright contraction.

“This divergence highlights that business conditions are no longer uniform, and SMEs at every stage of the growth cycle should be leaning on their brokers and advisors to help them navigate what comes next.

“For those with a growth mindset, agility is key – being ready to seize opportunities by accessing scalable finance when needed. 

“For those under pressure, it’s critical to work with trusted advisors and finance partners like ScotPac on strategies such as working capital optimisation, debt restructuring, and cash-flow management.”

Mr Sutton said for over 35 years, ScotPac has partnered with thousands of business owners and brokers to deliver flexible funding solutions that meet SMEs where they are. 

 

“Whether it’s supporting expansion or helping stabilise operations, ScotPac’s solutions are built around the realities of running a business,” he said.

 

“Our new Line of Credit – giving SMEs the ability to draw funds on demand and only pay for what they use – is just one example of how ScotPac can provide the right finance at the right time for any business.”

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About the SME Growth Index

Commencing in March 2014, ScotPac’s twice-yearly SME Growth Index is Australia’s longest-running research report on SME sentiment towards revenue growth prospects.

The Round 23 research was conducted by East & Partners who interviewed 724 SME enterprises with annual revenues of A$1-20 million. 

SMEs surveyed have operated continuously for an average of 16 years and manage, on average, 53 full-time employees. 

Sectors represented in the survey included Property & Business Services (13%), Manufacturing (13%), Wholesale (12%), Retail (11%), Transport & Storage (10%), Personal & Other Services (10%), Construction (10%) and other industries including Mining & Resources, Agriculture, Media & Telco, Accommodation, Cafes & Restaurants, Finance & Insurance (non-bank) and Electricity, Gas & Water. 

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ScotPac is Australia and New Zealand’s largest non-bank SME business lender, providing funding to small, medium and large businesses from start-ups to enterprises exceeding $1 billion in revenues. For over 35 years, ScotPac has helped thousands of business owners succeed, offering fast and flexible funding. From simple to complex, small to large, start-up, growth or turnaround – ScotPac can help with a range of funding including Invoice Finance, Trade Finance, Asset Finance, Line of Credit and Business Loans. ScotPac was recently awarded The Adviser Magazine’s Debtor Finance Loan of the Year for a sixth time. 

For more information contact:

 

Todd Hayward
Mob: 0412 205 151